Will new tariffs raise synthesizer/gear prices?

This Bluesky thread is about shoes rather than synthesizers, but it’s a very good breakdown of how international manufacture, wholesale, and retail markets work, and the insights are easily portable to pro audio gear.

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Aren’t tariffs on China a positive for sustainability? I keep hearing about all the businesses being “killed” by tariffs and it’s all junky one time use operations importing plastic garbage. The fact Behringer prices are going up so much tells you all you need to know. It might be inconvenient for us gear heads, but most of this music “hardware” is an ecological disaster. To say nothing of the slave labor practices over there. I’m surprised the eco-Europeans aren’t more supportive ….

We have this so called law “lieferkettengesetz” means, you have to assert that your delivery chain is following some standards - but unfortunatly this is now under threat with the new administration of the conservative party. I am very happy that Elektron produces in the EU and even Sveden where labour isnt cheap. It shows us that its totally feasible to have one of the best companys in the EU - and which also influencend my buying decision. (Same was true for moog before its gone downwards. )

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Do you know how much parts and materials are produced in the EU by chance? Just asking because I watched something yesterday about how Fender can’t say “Made in the USA” anymore for a lot of its guitars (maybe even everything but Custom Shop guitars; the others say something like Made in Corona, California now) because even though they are assembled in the US, not enough parts and materials qualify for the current “Made in the USA” designation.

No agenda, just curious is all.

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Good question, i think they order the chips in asia, pcb and enclosure inhouse, that would be typical.

Imho the code is providing the genious, not the hw alone. The ideas behind form the product.

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Possibly.

Depends if it has any effect on the cattle and their stupid fucking buying habits.

Hopefully all that shit will die.

But China makes a lot more than that these days. My wife’s car was pretty much entirely made and assembled in China and it’s far from cheap shit, and is also manufactured by a company who are getting pretty close to being carbon neutral.

I actually mostly somewhat agree with the broad (at least publicly declared) intentions of some of these tariffs, but I’m not sure that dropping these tariffs on everyone without a shitload of domestic investment in production capacity, infrastructure and jobs over probably a decade or more will achieve anything other than a bunch of market instability, currency fluctuations, businesses going to shit, consumers paying more and people losing their jobs.

I’d love to be wrong, because they’re going to do whatever the fuck they like anyway, so me having an opinion on it means dick all anyway.

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My prophet 6 says made in America and the new Trigon 6 which is pretty same build on same factory using the same components must say assembled in America just because of the new laws… it is crazy but that is where we are at.

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We’ll see ToneVerk within 80 days or less

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So latest pivot this morning they are now exempting chips, memory, phones, computers etc

But not cameras, synths, consumer stuff with zero tech transfer/national security risks…

Makes a lot of sense
It’s almost as if theres zero plan

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Guessing it’s a great time to buy Apple stock.

I didn’t want to buy a new phone yet and seems I don’t have to.

And I’m guessing it’s all about those bonds.

The whole list would seem to include much more than that. Remember the importer pays the tariff so gear retailers/manufacturers can make the case for an exemption (rather than Chinese exporters having to do so). The 8541 category would certainly get boutique/modular manufacturers off the hook.

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The exemption seems to include a lot of the types of components a boutique synth manufacturer would use.

But the problem now is, nobody can tell how long this exemption will exist. It could be settled for many months, or it could be taken away in a matter of hours depending on the mood and whim of the US administration.

That’s the fundamental problem here now. Nobody can really plan for anything because nobody can predict what will happen next. Chaos, really.

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Right the whole back & forth has been chaos.

If we are truly trying to decouple from China without cratering our own economy, a stick & carrot phased approach where we target specific industries/goods with pre-published escalating tariff rates that begin 6-12 months out and increase annually. Something that is tough but manageable so its both believable and achievable.

It would take Apple years to move out of China, so if you want them to do it you need some rational stick & carrot approach that gets them to do it. Embargo level 145% tariff such that iPhones will cost $2000 is hard to believe would be enforced for long term. Spontaneously cancelling the tariffs on a Saturday morning is also bad.

Apple needs to believe the tariff threat is credible, so that they actually start moving out of China… but it also needs to not be so onerous that we suddenly have shortages on all computing devices in the US for forseeable future.

Given the state of play its hard to pin down actual end state goal or a path in which this administration gets there.

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Far easier to move as much of it as possible back to California and sell for $2000 or $2500.

Especially since they already have a facility to partner with here.

Of course, at the rate things are changing planning is impossible. Better to sell off existing stock and wait for as long as they can.

What an absolute clown show

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Interesting… so semiconductors (IC’s, diodes, LED’s & transistors) are exempt but it would appear passives (caps, resistors, switches etc) aren’t.

I don’t know what the tariff rate is with Latvia where I guess some of the manufacturers are getting their Alfa chips (CEM clones) from but they’re pretty popular in the synth world

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So now the plan is to BRUTALLY tariff China, except on the things that China actually exports to the USA.

Xi Jinping must be laughing. ‘Oh no, tariffs on our exports of bourbon and maple syrup! However will our economy survive!’

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While we in the US have seen some large trouble with our financial markets, we’ve only seen small changes so far in the retail marketplace.

In China the parts of their economy involved with US trade are seeing larger changes now. There is a very large amount of goods backing up at the ship loading ports. There is also a lot of goods also backing up in warehouses. Some manufacturers are getting desparate for income, and are either using savings, or are being forced to close. Orders are just being canceled outright, and companies are being left without money to pay for labor and raw materials. People are losing their jobs.

Now probably one of the major things we will be seeing in the US going forward, beyond higher prices for synths and gear, is going to be outright shortages. Perhaps this will be the primary result ( more than outrageously high prices ), though later we will likely see the failure of businesses, at least those on the Chinese side that OEM manufacture.

Here is a twenty minute video documenting these changes in general, and also about the political reactions on the Chinese side. This really personalizes this for me, you can see the desparation and powerlessness of so many involved. The overheated political side to this is striking too.

Major catastrophe on the way for both sides, if this does not get resolved quickly.

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I guess what I’m getting at is that it may seem crazy now to you to have a $3,000 Take 5, but if all synths and gear get expensive all at once (as it has here), in a couple of years your idea of what is normal will have changed, even if you can’t afford it.

It is not the only thing businesses have to consider. The cost of running an American factory for these batteries and silicon may not be as competitive as it was in Mexico, China or Canada. While the Govt may subsidize, it’s again cost distorted and inefficient. If the idea is for tech security, not a wrong thing to think of, but, we have seen how publicly sponsored enterprises become inefficient, and eventually unable to compete. Just recall how Soviet factories were before. That’s where this would head towards.

Yeah, so while it’s all very patriotic for it to be wholly made in America, I reckon prices will still go up no matter what.

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