Trade Tariffs and the effect on synth marketplace

The Lounge General Discussion
#1

There’s an article in CDM about the potential effects of the trade war that’s brewing on synth prices and musical electronics.

This is a place to comment on price changes you’ve observed, or if you are informed about the pressures you might be experiencing as a manufacturer of musical electronic hardware. Apparently these price changes may occur in unexpected areas and in unexpected ways.

I don’t want this thread to become adversarial and polemic – if you’d like i’ll open another thread, where we all can vent on the political sides of this.

ADDED: As has been pointed out wisely below, the USA doesn’t have a lock on protectionism, so trade restriction world-wide (this also means Brexit) can be considered on-topic.

And also i will add that beyond price rises are market effects, particularly those that hurt smaller companies and start-ups and that also can be part of the discussion.

EDITED: Changed title to reflect discussion.

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#3

Anything with a Space Force is definitely on the right side of history

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#4

No comment on politics.
Buy what you can afford today

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#5

It’s incredibly difficult to predict how all of this will play out. From a UK perspective, I could end up paying outrageous prices of Brexit continues down Clown Avenue.

I guess if you’re on the fence about “that” bit of gear from a far off land then bite the bullet and buy as soon as you can.

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#6

the thread can’t go in this direction - it’s not going to work out well, politics on here does not end well

as op asked, can we keep it gear related or policy related, not about the person (& not in any other thread either please, it’ll get too hot rather quickly)

Trump himself is best considered OT, the policies are of course more on topic wrt the effects on buying gear etc

let’s try to keep this one flag free folk :thup:

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#8

I can bang

#9

On topic:
I think where synths will take a hit with the tariffs will come in the form of parts. A big part of the tariff shenanigans going on has to do with metals, especially those used in computers. But On the other had synths are a luxury and prices may not jump but productions on them may slow or stop temporarily.

#12

EDIT: Nevermind

#13

KEEP IT ON TOPIC

Tariffs and synth prices.
Thanks for the flags, folks.

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#14

Seriously who cares?, I mean synth prices are expensive enough and even with the tariffs its not going to stop people from buying the latest box . If anything buyers would be even more cautious before splashing and the 2nd hand market would increase.

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#15

I thought the most interesting aspect of that article was the speculation regarding how the tariffs could impact DIY and smaller manufacturers, including American manufacturers (i.e. ordering a giant batch of LEDs pre- bs post- start of trade war).

Edit: in fact, Harley has shown that the big dogs can make their own moves to mitigate the impact. Wonder if we’ll see similar changes with synth manufacturers? But it’s also a different product segment and the parts surely fall under different classifications under the HTS…?

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#16

In fact, using some of CDM’s examples, it might be Eurorack that’s hit the hardest if potentiometers, PCB components and LEDS end up on the list. Margins on modules are probably tight enough without having to consider whether to pass on the increased cost, absorb it and hope the increase is temporary, or “split it” with consumers.

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#17

Manufacturers will still design products at particular price points, tariffs will affect existing products in the medium term.

#19

I don’t expect that increased tariffs will include electronics or electronic parts in the near future. This would have strong negative impact on European industry too, which is buying lot’s of components and technology in the US.

It’s interesting that up to now the EU has picked only goods to be punished like Whiskey and “motor-cycles”, which are not indispensible for the EU citizens or industry, but might bugger US industry in the “rust belt”.

After Harley Davidson having announced to keep prices in the EU as is and move production capacity out of the US to countries, which are not included in the tariff dispute, we will see, who follows suit (independently, whether they would have done this anyway).

Trump made possibly a critical mistake, when he directly threatened a company like he did. If politics tries to patronize business this way, business typically takes this very serious and develops ways to tell politics, what’s acceptable and what not. The US administration knows very well that business is generating jobs and not disputes, which are irrational and absolutely not necessary.

#20

If the prices go up I’ll be more likely to buy 2nd hand or not at all

U.K. and brexit will make things worse.
That possible new moog is way out of my league whatever happens.

#23

don’t really care if the prices of things I wanna buy go up, I can hold off until this passes. more concerned about the many friends I have working for a local pedal manufacturer; they’ve been very successful but could get hit hard. although the details on this at the moment are kind of fuzzy…

#24

Sadly, when ‘this passes’ could be a very long time. Many people had to shut down or exit sectors they wanted to work in when the last UK recession hit, and it’s effects are still rumbling on - just merging with the current crisis.

#25

A variety of protectionist policies are in place in every country, resulting in winners and losers domestic and foreign. We’d probably be better off if all tariffs and subsidies were completely eliminated but then when has that ever occurred?

We can focus on LEDs and pots here in this thread but we’re glossing over the potential changes afoot in emerging markets.

It was yesterday that Foxconn just broke ground on a factory in the US which will employ 13,000 people. I’d think it’s not inconceivable that some component manufacturing will resume domestically. See Harley Davidson as previously mentioned above. I say wait and see how this all plays out, for all we know we may see back peddling and concessions that make all of this largely moot.

On a side note regarding protectionism and markets, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff act preceded the Great Depression. In the US we’re seeing the formation of a yield curve inversion, the last 7 of which preceded recessions.

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#26

I’m hoping Brexit doesn’t happen, I know its a dream.

#27

And yet Nigel Farrage and many others didn’t struggle to make compelling arguments for Brexit. Frankly, I’m not sure I even see the risk in greater autonomy and the referendum results clearly spelled out the opinions of voters, yes? It’s not as if trade will grind to a halt.